#EURCAD Medium / Long term Outlook and Positioning

The charts of the pair are currently as follows:

#EURCAD H4

#EURCAD Daily

#EURCAD Weekly

The outlook for the coming quarters given by institutional research teams is as follows:

CIBC

q1 1.61 q2 1.59 q3 1.62 q4 1.64

Societe Generale

q1 1.45 q2 1.48 q3 1.50 q4 1.52

ScotiaBank

q1 1.51 q2 1.50 q3 1.51 q4 1.50

The #EUR and #CAD outlook have been discussed in other posts of this blog.

There is a combination of factors that will affect the pair in the next quarters and any forecast of these would be highly speculative.

A continuation of the general strengthening of the  #EUR, no major events are expected that could trigger very big and sudden moves on the pair, no major negative economic data expected on neither of them, are all valid assumptions.

No trend reversal in any of the charts.

The range in which the pair is expected to move in the coming quarters is:

Medium / Long term positioning is long

#EURGBP Medium / Long term Outlook and Positioning

The charts of the pair are currently as follows:

#EURGBP H4

#EURGBP Daily

#EURGBP Weekly

The outlook for the coming quarters given by institutional research teams is as follows:

Barclays

q1 0.90 q2 0.90 q3 0.90 q4 0.85

CIBC

q1 0.93 q2 0.93 q3 0.92 q4 0.91

Danske

q1 0.89 q2 0.89 q3 0.87 q4 0.86

UBS

0.95 by the end of q4

Societe Generale

q1 0.94 q2 0.96 q3 0.97 q4 0.98
DNB
q1 0.90 q2 0.90 q3 0.91 q4 0.92
HandelsBanken
q1 0.92 q2 0.94

The outlook of #EUR and of #GBP have been discussed in other  posts of this blog.
Brexit is the deciding factor for the direction of the pair.
For #GBP to have a "bright" future on this pair, a trade deal close to the Norway model should be reached, and this should be done in the most fluent and smooth way.  This scenario edges to the impossible.
Trade talks are going to be bumpy and a compromise is the most likely output.  Any deviation from that is most likely to be on the negative side and this will mean problems for #GBP.
#GBP is likely to be supported if necessary by the BoE.

The range the pair is likely to move in the coming quarters is:

Medium / long term positioning is long.

#AUDCHF Medium / Long term Outlook and Positioning

The charts of the pair are currently as follows:

#AUDCHF H4

#AUDCHF Weekly

#AUDCHF Monthly

No major issues in neither of the economies.  #AUD might face a relatively hard year as explained in other posts. 
#CHF is still considered overvalued by the Swiss Central bank.  No change in its policy is expected in 2018.

Medium to long term positioning is long

#AUDCAD Medium / Long term Outlook and Positioning

The charts of the pair are currently as follows:

#AUDCAD H4

#AUDCAD Daily

#AUDCAD Weekly

The outlook for the coming quarters given by institutional research teams is as follows:

NAB

q1 0.94 q2 0.95 q3 0.96 q4 0.97

CIBC

q1 1.09 q2 1.09 q3 1.11 q4 1.12

ScotiaBank

q1 1.01 q2 1.0 q3 1.01 q4 1.0

A change in trend has not yet been established. 

The range that the pair is expected to move in the coming quarters is:

For the moment medium to long term positioning remains short with caution.

#GBPUSD Medium / Long term Outlook and Positioning

The charts of the pair are currently as follows:

#GBPUSD H4

#GBPUSD Daily

#GBPUSD Weekly

The outlook for the coming quarters given by institutional research teams is as follows:

NAB

q1 1.30 q2 1.31 q3 1.31 q4 1.28

Barclays

q1 1.30 q2 1.32 q3 1.36 q4 1.46

CIBC

q1 1.31 q2 1.31 q3 1.34 q4 1.38

Danske

q1 1.29 q2 1.30 q3 1.38 q4 1.45

UBS

1.32 by the end of q4

Societe Generale

q1 1.29 q2 1.28 q3 1.29 q4 1.30

ScotiaBank

q1 1.35 q2 1.35 q3 1.37 q4 1.37

BNZ

q1 1.40 q2 1.41 q3 1.43 q4 1.44
Morgan Stanley
q1 1.25 q2 1.30 q3 1.27 q4 1.24

The pairs driver will be primarily #GBP and secondarily #USD.  The outlook of both has been discussed in other posts.  In brief, #GBP will be driven by the trade negotiations and the trade negotiations will be driven by domestic politics.  This factor cannot be predicted with relative safety.  However, the political survival or demise of populist pro Brexit politicians is dependent on the trade talk negotiations.  The economic consequences of Brexit are now clear to the British electorate and populist arguments will have a much lesser effect.  This is a the strongest incentive possible for such politicians as long as they will be able to present a soft Brexit in a way that they "will save face".

Trade talks are not expected to be smooth, hence volatility is expected to be high.

BoE is expected to be supportive to #GBP hiking the rates if necessary.

On the other side a political collapse and early elections are always a possibility.  The likely cause for that will be pro Brexit populist Tories.  In such case the Labor will be an unknown factor and by no means a soft Brexit alternative solution.

The projected trade zone for the coming quarters is the following:

Medium to long term positioning is long 

#EURUSD Medium / Long term Outlook and Positioning

The charts of the pair are currently as follows:

#EURUSD H4

#EURUSD Daily

#EURUSD Weekly

The outlook for the coming quarters given by institutional research teams is as follows:

NAB

q1 1.18 q2 1.20 q3 1.22 q4 1.20

Barclays

q1 1.17 q2 1.19 q3 1.22 q4 1.24

CIBC

q1 1.21 q2 1.22 q3 1.23 q4 1.25

Danske

q1 1.16 q2 1.16 q3 1.20 q4 1.25

UBS

1.25 by the end of q4

Societe Generale

q1 1.21 q2 1.23 q3 1.25 q4 1.27

ScotiaBank

q1 1.18 q2 1.18 q3 1.20 q4 1.20

DNB

q1 1.18 q2 1.18 q3 1.20 q4 1.22
Handelsbanken
q1 1.15 q2 1.15 q3 1.15 q4 1.20

BNZ

q1 1.20 q2 1.21 q3 1.24 q4 1.26
Morgan Stanley
q1 1.20 q2 1.23 q3 1.18 q4 1.17

Common factor on the above is that the direction of the pair is up.
The outlook of both #EUR and #USD have been analyzed in other posts in this blog.  The bottom line is that #EUR is not expected to diverse from its general upward path.  Economic data supports that and ECB policy and rhetoric can accelerate or slow it down but it is not likely to reverse it.  #USD is supported by the economic climate, the data, and FED policy.  It is not expected to dive considerably or suddenly.   Erratic political behavior, divergence of political and economic policies, as well as economic decisions made with domestic political criteria is always a concern with the current administration. 
The range in which the pair is expected to move is the following:

Medium to Long term positioning is long.

#USDJPY Medium / Long term Outlook and Positioning

The charts of the pair are currently as follows:

#USDJPY H4

#USDJPY Daily

#USDJPY Weekly

The outlook for the coming quarters given by institutional research teams is as follows:

NAB

q1 118 q2 118 q3 118 q4 120

Barclays

q1 112 q2 110 q3 108 q4 105

CIBC

q1 111 q2 110 q3 108 q4 106

Danske

q1 114 q2 114 q3 115 q4 116

UBS

122 by the end of q4

Societe Generale

q1 112 q2 113 q3 113 q4 110

ScotiaBank

q1 114 q2 114 q3 115 q4 115

DNB

q1 112 q2 112 q3 114 q4 115

BNZ

q1 115 q2 116 q3 117 q4 118
Morgan Stanley
q1 114 q2 112 q3 108 q4 105

As far as Central Bank policy is concerned, FED will probably hike twice or three times during 2018 and BOJ none.  However even a slight edging in BOJ's rhetoric towards a more hawkish stance could have a substantial effect on #JPY.

Other factors that could influence the pair are diverse and hard to predict their effect since their combination and the market state at the time will play a key role.  That is why there is such diversity in the outlook given by various research teams.

No trend can be identified in the charts.  However price is above long term EMAs on Daily and Weekly.

The range that the pair is expected to trade is relatively narrow.

Medium to Long term Positioning is long