#EURCHF #USDCHF Medium / Long term Outlook and Positioning

The key factors that greatly determine the outlook of these pairs are the following:

• The economic data coming from the EU is strong and it is expected to continue being so during the next quarters.
• There is renewed and solid faith in the EU by international investors.  After the debt crisis, the Brexit crisis, and the subsequent weakening of populist movements across the EU, markets watch EU politics with resilience and confidence. 
• Brexit negotiations and their outcome are not likely to have any considerable or sustained effect on the #EUR
• ECB is slowly entering normalization mode and is expected to turn hawkish towards the end of 2018
• FED is expected to increase its rates during this moth.  Many analysts believe that this will happen again once or twice during 2018.
• SNB is not turning into normalization anytime soon.  Even in its communications it is very careful not to send any opposite signal.
• It is obvious that there is a strong divergence in Central Banks policies.
• #USD weakness over the last weeks opens the opportunity for new tactical medium - long term positioning 

The long term (Q1 to Q4 2018) forecasts from institutional analysts is as follows:

Nomura considers it likely for #EURCHF to reach 1.20.

BNP Paribas targets #USDCHF at 1.02.

Barclays expects #EURCHF to gradually climb towards 1.22 by the end of 2018 and #USDCHF to range close to its current levels between 0.98 and 1.00

NAB expects #USDCHF to range at 0.98

CIBC is one of the few that gives a negative outlook on #USDCHF for the next quarters with a value as low as 0.94, and in accordance with the rest gives a positive outlook on #EURCHF with a possible value of 1.18

Danske sees #EURCHF ranging at its current value for the next few months and picking up towards the middle of 2018 reaching 1.23.  #USDCHF outlook is a range in its current values.

UBS is expecting a #EURCHF climb to 1,2 - 1.22 and a #USDCHF range at 0.96 - 0.98

Societe Generale sees #EURCHF rising to 1.21 and #USDCHF ranging at 0.97-0.98

Scotiabank sees #EURCHF ranging around 1.14 throught 2018 and #USDCHF doing the same at 0.97 before dropping to a lower of 0.95 during the 2nd semester of 2018.

Mathematical models based on historical data produce an outlook for #EURCHF in which its price is at a gradual increase reaching 1.25 by the end of Q4 2018.   For #USDCHF the outlook is a gradual increase for Q1 and Q2 reaching 1.0 and then a reverse in price direction ending Q4 at 0.95.

From a technical point of view, as expected, the trend is obvious on #EURCHF on the Daily chart and on the weekly its price is well above the long term EMAs.
No trend can be identified in #USDCHF but it can be seen that the range is tight (in comparison with other pairs).

 #EURCHF Daily

#EURCHF Weekly

#USDCHF Daily 

#USDCHF Weekly

The levels in which the pairs are expected to move in the the coming quarters are:

#EURCHF

#USDCHF

Based on the above, medium long term positioning on #EURCHF is long.  

Given the current state of #USD and the upcoming (most probably) increase in FED rates, positioning is also long.  
A possible range in the price of #USDCHF could also be exploited because of the narrow width that the pair ranges. 

Given the range width of both pairs and the fact that no extreme moves are expected trading can be more aggressive.

Update 9/12/2017
Credit Agricole CIB FX Startegy, expects CHF rallies to stay sell in various pairs including #EURCHF.  The target for long positions is 1.18.
They base their argument on the fact the SNB still sonsiders #CHF to be overvalued.