#GBPTRY Current, Medium and Long Term Outlook

The outlook of  #TRY is analyzed in today's posts on #EURTRY or #USDTRY and therefore it will not be repeated here.

#EURTRY and #USDTRY have the same medium and long term outlook and at specific market instances can be correlated.

#GBPTRY could be a different case though, mainly because of the unpredictability of #GBP.

After Brexit, #GBP has been extremely volatile and unpredictable across the board.
There is no doubt that it is grossly undervalued at the moment.  Its price in many pairs does not reflect the fundamentals of the UK economy which remain solid.  However, if the uncertainty of the trade negotiations with the EU, as well as a good amount of speculation are added to its value, then its price and behavior are natural and expected.

Although the only rational outcome of the trade negotiations is a win-win trade deal, this is far from being certain since it is dependent solely by the British internal politics.  After Brexit the narrative of its supporters has completely collapsed and it is obvious that there is no realistic plan as to what happens next.  And neither the weakened and divided Conservative party, nor the Labor party offer any clear plan of exit.  The latter raises more concerns to investors than it does hopes.
As a result of that, but also because of their complexity, the trade negotiations are going to be a lengthy and bumpy process.
Therefore the uncertainty that surrounds #GBP will continue to exist until the result of the trade negotiations is known and this will take a few years.  #GBP will continue to be volatile and susceptible to big price swings.

Fundamentally speaking, the above are facts and valid future assumptions.  And they should be reflected on the chart of #GBPTRY.
Below are the Daily charts of #GBPTRY #EURTRY #USDTRY

#GBPTRY Daily chart

#EURTRY Daily chart

#USDTRY Daily chart

None of these fundamentals is reflected on these charts in a way that would show major differences in the long term between #GBPTRY and the other two pairs. 

As it is obvious after the Bang of Brexit and despite the weakening of #GBP, its unpredictability, and its volatility, the charts tell exactly the same story.  And that is that #TRY is under a lot of pressure and very weak.  This is the driving factor behind the direction of these pairs. 

However, these fundamentals cannot be ignored and  the risk of a sharp and sudden #GBP downturn of considerable size and duration is real.  The probabilities of such a move are not high but they are much higher than they are for #EUR or #USD.

A last but very important factor that will influence #GBPTRY is that the Bank of England is vigilant in supporting the pound and a rate hike is expected soon.

Based on the above, the medium and long term positioning on #GBPTRY is long.  This is supported by the outlook of #TRY (as it is presented on the #EURTRY or #USDTRY posts) and by the fact that #GBP is already devalued well beyond its fundamentals justify.  

The fact that a sudden downturn, although improbable, cannot be excluded, should be taken into consideration on the sizing and on the distance between orders.