http://fxrambler.blogspot.gr/2017/12/nzd-basics.html
The charts of the pair are at the moment as follows:
#NZDUSD H4
#NZDUSD Daily
#NZDUSD Weekly
The outlook given to the pair by various institutional researchers is as follows:
CIBC
q1 0.7, q2, 0.71. q3 0.71. q4 0.72
Westpac
q1 0.67, q2, 0.66. q3 0.64. q4 0.63
Scotiabank
q1 0.73, q2, 0.73. q3 0.74. q4 0.74
NAB
q1 0.69, q2, 0.69. q3 0.70. q4 0.70
Citi
They expect #NZD to recover
UBS
They consider it undervalued. 0.76 by q4
ANZ
q1 and q2 at around 0..73, and sliding to 0.68 by q4
Morgan Stanley
q1 0.68, q2, 0.68. q3 0.64. q4 0.61
Barclays
q1 0.71, q2, 0.72. q3 0.73. q4 0.74
Credit Agricole
q1 0.68, q2, 0.70. q3 0.72. q4 0.74
Societe Generale
q1 0.72, q2, 0.73. q3 0.74. q4 0.74
Nomura
They see #NZD underperforming
BNZ
q1 0.68, q2, 0.68. q3 0.69. q4 0.70
BNZ
q1 0.68, q2, 0.68. q3 0.69. q4 0.70
Mathematical models based on statistics and historical data give an outlook of a range at around 0.68 0.69
It is obvious that there is a great divergence in the opinions between the research teams. And this is expected since the fundamentals could point to either direction.
The range in which these future projections move can be seen below:
As far as the long term EMAs are concerned, it can be seen form the charts at the top, that no trend reversal can be identified.
Positioning against the current established trend, would be based mainly on the following assumptions:
#NZD is currently undervalued mainly because of politics and this uncertainty will fade away.
Economic data in the coming quarters will support its strengthening.
These two assumptions are not judged to be enough to make such a drastic move.
If the following assumptions are added to the "equation":
#USD is not expected to depreciate. At least not in any considerable and most importantly sudden way.
No sudden moves are expected in the pair towards any direction.
Economic data coming form New Zealand is not likely to support any major moves towards the buy direction.
The range of price move expected is relatively narrow, and it will probably be gradual.
The conclusion is that positioning in the medium to long term should be short, in a rather aggressive way.
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