#USDCAD Medium / Long term Outlook and Positioning

The charts of the pair are currently as follows:

#USDCAD H4

#USDCAD Daily

#USDCADD Weekly

The outlook for the coming quarters given by institutional research teams is as follows:

NAB

q1 1.27 q2 1.30 q3 1.31 q4 1.33

Barclays

q1 1.25 q2 1.23 q3 1.22 q4 1.21

CIBC

q1 1.33 q2 1.30 q3 1.32 q4 1.31

Danske

q1 1.29 q2 1.29 q3 1.25 q4 1.23

UBS
1.33 by the end of q4
Societe Generale
q1 1.20 q2 1.20 q3 1.20 q4 1.20
ScotiaBank
q1 1.28 q2 1.27 q3 1.26 q4 1.25
Morgan Stanley
q1 1.28 q2 1.27 q3 1.33 q4 1.38

#USD Range 2018

Opinions differ between researchers.  This is to be expected since there is no immediate danger, advantage or disadvantage when comparing the two.

The direction that the pair will follow will be determined by combined factors as they appear in the course of time.

As far as Central Banks are concerned, #USD is set for more hikes but what is next for #CAD is really unknown (both in direction and timing).

The only common ground in most research teams is the range in which they see the pair moving which is relatively narrow.

As far as the carts are concerned, the downtrend on the Daily appears to have been stopped and on the weekly the price is above the long term EMA.  On H4  the trend is still intact.

At the moment there is nothing to justify going opposite the current trend.

Medium Long term positioning is long rather aggressively.