#AUDNZD Medium / Long term Outlook and Positioning

A brief description of the fundamentals of #NZD and #AUD can be found on this post:

http://fxrambler.blogspot.gr/2017/12/nzd-basics.html

The charts of the pair are at the moment as follows:

#AUDNZD H4

#AUDNZD Daily

#AUDNZD Weekly

The outlook given to the pair by institutional researchers is as follows:

Westpac

NZDAUD q1 0.89 q2 0.89 q3 0.89.5 q4 0.90

BNZ

NZDAUD q1 0.93 q2 0.94 q3 0.95.5 q4 0.96

NAB

q1 1.07 q2 1.06 q3 1.04.5 q4 1.04

ANZ

NZDAUD 0.88 by the end of q2 and 0.92 by the end of q4

The economic outlooks of both countries are very similar.  Both are expected to slow down, Australia has a poorer export outlook and New Zealand has a poor housing market outlook, and so on..  No major surprises are expected from any of the two.

Based on the fact that there is no established trend reversal, and the tight range in which is quite probable the pair to trade during the next quarters,  the medium to long term positioning is to trade the range with a bias to long at the moment.  

Because of the tight range, positioning could be quite aggressive.