http://fxrambler.blogspot.gr/2017/12/nzd-basics.html
The charts of the pair are at the moment as follows:
#GBPNZD H4
#GBPNZD Daily
#GBPNZD Weekly
The outlook given to the pair by institutional researchers is as follows:
Westpac
NZDGBP q1 0.51 q2 0.51 q3 0.51.5 q4 0.50
BNZ
q1 0.49 q2 0.48 q3 0.45 q4 0.49
Nomura
They expect #NZD to underperform
ANZ
1.85 by the end of q2 and 1.92 by the end of q4
The only certain characteristic for the pair during the coming months will be high volatility. #GBP will drive the pair and #GBP will be driven by the trade negotiations.
And these will be massively influenced by UK politics.
If negotiations are seemingly going to a dead end, and at the same time elections are called in the UK (a scenario that is not extremely unlikely to happen given the fragility of the UK government) #GBP could plunge to post Brexit levels.
A breakthrough that could lift #GBP to pre Brexit levels is considered highly unlikely at least for the first 3 quarters of 2018.
Based on the (fragile and therefore speculative) assumption that the political survival of the pro Brexit politicians depends exclusively on a positive trade deal, since populist arguments are not likely to persuade the electorate a second time, an election or a dead end of he negotiations is a less probable option than the opposite.
A slow and agonizing negotiation that will bring the trade deal closer is a more likely scenario.
Hence, positioning for the medium to long term is long, with extreme caution.
ANZ
1.85 by the end of q2 and 1.92 by the end of q4
The only certain characteristic for the pair during the coming months will be high volatility. #GBP will drive the pair and #GBP will be driven by the trade negotiations.
And these will be massively influenced by UK politics.
If negotiations are seemingly going to a dead end, and at the same time elections are called in the UK (a scenario that is not extremely unlikely to happen given the fragility of the UK government) #GBP could plunge to post Brexit levels.
A breakthrough that could lift #GBP to pre Brexit levels is considered highly unlikely at least for the first 3 quarters of 2018.
Based on the (fragile and therefore speculative) assumption that the political survival of the pro Brexit politicians depends exclusively on a positive trade deal, since populist arguments are not likely to persuade the electorate a second time, an election or a dead end of he negotiations is a less probable option than the opposite.
A slow and agonizing negotiation that will bring the trade deal closer is a more likely scenario.
Hence, positioning for the medium to long term is long, with extreme caution.
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