http://fxrambler.blogspot.gr/2017/12/nzd-basics.html
The charts of the pair are at the moment as follows:
#NZDJPY H4
#NZDJPY Daily
#NZDJPY Weekly
The outlook given to the pair by institutional researchers is as follows:
Westpac
q1 76.4 q2 75.9 q3 74.5 q4 73.1
BNZ
q1 78 q2 79 q3 81 q4 82
Nomura
They expect #NZD to underperform
The charts do mot show any established bullish reversal.
The main influence on the pair will be by the action or inaction of #JPY.
The factor that is most likely to influence #JPY is BOJ rhetoric. Action from BOJ is not expected during 2018. This factor cannot in anyway be predicted. However a slight reversal in rhetoric by BOJ will most probably lead to strengthening of #JPY.
New Zealand economic data does not justify any considerable or sudden strengthening of #NZD.
Given this last assumption, and assuming a edging in the rhetoric, but also considering the range in which the pair is projected to move which is shown below,
Positioning in the medium to long term is short rather aggressively (since there is nothing to justify a considerable weakening of #JPY or strengthening of #NZD).
The assumption concerning BOJ' rhetoric adds a fair degree of speculation to this conclusion.
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