#EURCAD Medium / Long term Outlook and Positioning

The charts of the pair are currently as follows:

#EURCAD H4

#EURCAD Daily

#EURCAD Weekly

The outlook for the coming quarters given by institutional research teams is as follows:

CIBC

q1 1.61 q2 1.59 q3 1.62 q4 1.64

Societe Generale

q1 1.45 q2 1.48 q3 1.50 q4 1.52

ScotiaBank

q1 1.51 q2 1.50 q3 1.51 q4 1.50

The #EUR and #CAD outlook have been discussed in other posts of this blog.

There is a combination of factors that will affect the pair in the next quarters and any forecast of these would be highly speculative.

A continuation of the general strengthening of the  #EUR, no major events are expected that could trigger very big and sudden moves on the pair, no major negative economic data expected on neither of them, are all valid assumptions.

No trend reversal in any of the charts.

The range in which the pair is expected to move in the coming quarters is:

Medium / Long term positioning is long

#EURGBP Medium / Long term Outlook and Positioning

The charts of the pair are currently as follows:

#EURGBP H4

#EURGBP Daily

#EURGBP Weekly

The outlook for the coming quarters given by institutional research teams is as follows:

Barclays

q1 0.90 q2 0.90 q3 0.90 q4 0.85

CIBC

q1 0.93 q2 0.93 q3 0.92 q4 0.91

Danske

q1 0.89 q2 0.89 q3 0.87 q4 0.86

UBS

0.95 by the end of q4

Societe Generale

q1 0.94 q2 0.96 q3 0.97 q4 0.98
DNB
q1 0.90 q2 0.90 q3 0.91 q4 0.92
HandelsBanken
q1 0.92 q2 0.94

The outlook of #EUR and of #GBP have been discussed in other  posts of this blog.
Brexit is the deciding factor for the direction of the pair.
For #GBP to have a "bright" future on this pair, a trade deal close to the Norway model should be reached, and this should be done in the most fluent and smooth way.  This scenario edges to the impossible.
Trade talks are going to be bumpy and a compromise is the most likely output.  Any deviation from that is most likely to be on the negative side and this will mean problems for #GBP.
#GBP is likely to be supported if necessary by the BoE.

The range the pair is likely to move in the coming quarters is:

Medium / long term positioning is long.

#AUDCHF Medium / Long term Outlook and Positioning

The charts of the pair are currently as follows:

#AUDCHF H4

#AUDCHF Weekly

#AUDCHF Monthly

No major issues in neither of the economies.  #AUD might face a relatively hard year as explained in other posts. 
#CHF is still considered overvalued by the Swiss Central bank.  No change in its policy is expected in 2018.

Medium to long term positioning is long

#AUDCAD Medium / Long term Outlook and Positioning

The charts of the pair are currently as follows:

#AUDCAD H4

#AUDCAD Daily

#AUDCAD Weekly

The outlook for the coming quarters given by institutional research teams is as follows:

NAB

q1 0.94 q2 0.95 q3 0.96 q4 0.97

CIBC

q1 1.09 q2 1.09 q3 1.11 q4 1.12

ScotiaBank

q1 1.01 q2 1.0 q3 1.01 q4 1.0

A change in trend has not yet been established. 

The range that the pair is expected to move in the coming quarters is:

For the moment medium to long term positioning remains short with caution.

#GBPUSD Medium / Long term Outlook and Positioning

The charts of the pair are currently as follows:

#GBPUSD H4

#GBPUSD Daily

#GBPUSD Weekly

The outlook for the coming quarters given by institutional research teams is as follows:

NAB

q1 1.30 q2 1.31 q3 1.31 q4 1.28

Barclays

q1 1.30 q2 1.32 q3 1.36 q4 1.46

CIBC

q1 1.31 q2 1.31 q3 1.34 q4 1.38

Danske

q1 1.29 q2 1.30 q3 1.38 q4 1.45

UBS

1.32 by the end of q4

Societe Generale

q1 1.29 q2 1.28 q3 1.29 q4 1.30

ScotiaBank

q1 1.35 q2 1.35 q3 1.37 q4 1.37

BNZ

q1 1.40 q2 1.41 q3 1.43 q4 1.44
Morgan Stanley
q1 1.25 q2 1.30 q3 1.27 q4 1.24

The pairs driver will be primarily #GBP and secondarily #USD.  The outlook of both has been discussed in other posts.  In brief, #GBP will be driven by the trade negotiations and the trade negotiations will be driven by domestic politics.  This factor cannot be predicted with relative safety.  However, the political survival or demise of populist pro Brexit politicians is dependent on the trade talk negotiations.  The economic consequences of Brexit are now clear to the British electorate and populist arguments will have a much lesser effect.  This is a the strongest incentive possible for such politicians as long as they will be able to present a soft Brexit in a way that they "will save face".

Trade talks are not expected to be smooth, hence volatility is expected to be high.

BoE is expected to be supportive to #GBP hiking the rates if necessary.

On the other side a political collapse and early elections are always a possibility.  The likely cause for that will be pro Brexit populist Tories.  In such case the Labor will be an unknown factor and by no means a soft Brexit alternative solution.

The projected trade zone for the coming quarters is the following:

Medium to long term positioning is long 

#EURUSD Medium / Long term Outlook and Positioning

The charts of the pair are currently as follows:

#EURUSD H4

#EURUSD Daily

#EURUSD Weekly

The outlook for the coming quarters given by institutional research teams is as follows:

NAB

q1 1.18 q2 1.20 q3 1.22 q4 1.20

Barclays

q1 1.17 q2 1.19 q3 1.22 q4 1.24

CIBC

q1 1.21 q2 1.22 q3 1.23 q4 1.25

Danske

q1 1.16 q2 1.16 q3 1.20 q4 1.25

UBS

1.25 by the end of q4

Societe Generale

q1 1.21 q2 1.23 q3 1.25 q4 1.27

ScotiaBank

q1 1.18 q2 1.18 q3 1.20 q4 1.20

DNB

q1 1.18 q2 1.18 q3 1.20 q4 1.22
Handelsbanken
q1 1.15 q2 1.15 q3 1.15 q4 1.20

BNZ

q1 1.20 q2 1.21 q3 1.24 q4 1.26
Morgan Stanley
q1 1.20 q2 1.23 q3 1.18 q4 1.17

Common factor on the above is that the direction of the pair is up.
The outlook of both #EUR and #USD have been analyzed in other posts in this blog.  The bottom line is that #EUR is not expected to diverse from its general upward path.  Economic data supports that and ECB policy and rhetoric can accelerate or slow it down but it is not likely to reverse it.  #USD is supported by the economic climate, the data, and FED policy.  It is not expected to dive considerably or suddenly.   Erratic political behavior, divergence of political and economic policies, as well as economic decisions made with domestic political criteria is always a concern with the current administration. 
The range in which the pair is expected to move is the following:

Medium to Long term positioning is long.

#USDJPY Medium / Long term Outlook and Positioning

The charts of the pair are currently as follows:

#USDJPY H4

#USDJPY Daily

#USDJPY Weekly

The outlook for the coming quarters given by institutional research teams is as follows:

NAB

q1 118 q2 118 q3 118 q4 120

Barclays

q1 112 q2 110 q3 108 q4 105

CIBC

q1 111 q2 110 q3 108 q4 106

Danske

q1 114 q2 114 q3 115 q4 116

UBS

122 by the end of q4

Societe Generale

q1 112 q2 113 q3 113 q4 110

ScotiaBank

q1 114 q2 114 q3 115 q4 115

DNB

q1 112 q2 112 q3 114 q4 115

BNZ

q1 115 q2 116 q3 117 q4 118
Morgan Stanley
q1 114 q2 112 q3 108 q4 105

As far as Central Bank policy is concerned, FED will probably hike twice or three times during 2018 and BOJ none.  However even a slight edging in BOJ's rhetoric towards a more hawkish stance could have a substantial effect on #JPY.

Other factors that could influence the pair are diverse and hard to predict their effect since their combination and the market state at the time will play a key role.  That is why there is such diversity in the outlook given by various research teams.

No trend can be identified in the charts.  However price is above long term EMAs on Daily and Weekly.

The range that the pair is expected to trade is relatively narrow.

Medium to Long term Positioning is long

#USDCAD Medium / Long term Outlook and Positioning

The charts of the pair are currently as follows:

#USDCAD H4

#USDCAD Daily

#USDCADD Weekly

The outlook for the coming quarters given by institutional research teams is as follows:

NAB

q1 1.27 q2 1.30 q3 1.31 q4 1.33

Barclays

q1 1.25 q2 1.23 q3 1.22 q4 1.21

CIBC

q1 1.33 q2 1.30 q3 1.32 q4 1.31

Danske

q1 1.29 q2 1.29 q3 1.25 q4 1.23

UBS
1.33 by the end of q4
Societe Generale
q1 1.20 q2 1.20 q3 1.20 q4 1.20
ScotiaBank
q1 1.28 q2 1.27 q3 1.26 q4 1.25
Morgan Stanley
q1 1.28 q2 1.27 q3 1.33 q4 1.38

#USD Range 2018

Opinions differ between researchers.  This is to be expected since there is no immediate danger, advantage or disadvantage when comparing the two.

The direction that the pair will follow will be determined by combined factors as they appear in the course of time.

As far as Central Banks are concerned, #USD is set for more hikes but what is next for #CAD is really unknown (both in direction and timing).

The only common ground in most research teams is the range in which they see the pair moving which is relatively narrow.

As far as the carts are concerned, the downtrend on the Daily appears to have been stopped and on the weekly the price is above the long term EMA.  On H4  the trend is still intact.

At the moment there is nothing to justify going opposite the current trend.

Medium Long term positioning is long rather aggressively.  

#USDTRY #EURTRY #GBPTRY Updates

Updates concerning the posts:

http://fxrambler.blogspot.gr/2017/12/usdtry-current-medium-and-long-term.html

http://fxrambler.blogspot.gr/2017/12/eurtry.html

http://fxrambler.blogspot.gr/2017/12/gbptry-current-medium-and-long-term.html

Update 14/12/2017
Researchers expressed the following arguments: 
Growth is driven by cheap credit.  Ways for new stimulus programs have been exhausted.
Rolling over the countries debt might become a serious issue if core market yields rise.

Both valid arguments.

Inflation is at 13%.  and as a result real rate at the moment is negative.
Why such a modest rise today?
Seeing #TRY stabilizing the last weeks and getting marginally stronger, not getting hammered by #USD yesterday when FED raised rates, and the data that came out lately could be factors of influence in the decision to postpone a descent rate hike. 
However, the main factor could have been politics once more.  Economically speaking, it is the consensus among researchers and in the markets as well that a hike is inevitable. 
Politics are and will continue to be a negative factor for investors, the market, and #TRY. 

Pressure on #TRY will probably rise after today.

#AUDNZD Medium / Long term Outlook and Positioning

A brief description of the fundamentals of #NZD and #AUD can be found on this post:

http://fxrambler.blogspot.gr/2017/12/nzd-basics.html

The charts of the pair are at the moment as follows:

#AUDNZD H4

#AUDNZD Daily

#AUDNZD Weekly

The outlook given to the pair by institutional researchers is as follows:

Westpac

NZDAUD q1 0.89 q2 0.89 q3 0.89.5 q4 0.90

BNZ

NZDAUD q1 0.93 q2 0.94 q3 0.95.5 q4 0.96

NAB

q1 1.07 q2 1.06 q3 1.04.5 q4 1.04

ANZ

NZDAUD 0.88 by the end of q2 and 0.92 by the end of q4

The economic outlooks of both countries are very similar.  Both are expected to slow down, Australia has a poorer export outlook and New Zealand has a poor housing market outlook, and so on..  No major surprises are expected from any of the two.

Based on the fact that there is no established trend reversal, and the tight range in which is quite probable the pair to trade during the next quarters,  the medium to long term positioning is to trade the range with a bias to long at the moment.  

Because of the tight range, positioning could be quite aggressive.

#GBPNZD Medium / Long term Outlook and Positioning

A brief description of the fundamentals of #NZD and #GBP can be found on this post:

http://fxrambler.blogspot.gr/2017/12/nzd-basics.html

The charts of the pair are at the moment as follows:

#GBPNZD H4

#GBPNZD Daily

#GBPNZD Weekly

The outlook given to the pair by institutional researchers is as follows:

Westpac

NZDGBP q1 0.51 q2 0.51 q3 0.51.5 q4 0.50

BNZ

q1 0.49 q2 0.48 q3 0.45 q4 0.49

Nomura

They expect #NZD to underperform
ANZ
1.85 by the end of q2 and 1.92 by the end of q4

The only certain characteristic for the pair during the coming months will be high volatility.  #GBP will drive the pair and #GBP will be driven by the trade negotiations.
And these will be massively influenced by UK politics. 

If negotiations are seemingly going to a dead end, and at the same time elections are called in the UK (a scenario that is not extremely unlikely to happen given the fragility of the UK government) #GBP could plunge to post Brexit levels.
A breakthrough that could lift #GBP to pre Brexit levels is considered highly unlikely at least for the first 3 quarters of 2018.

Based on the (fragile and therefore speculative) assumption that the political survival of the pro Brexit politicians depends exclusively on a positive trade deal, since populist arguments are not likely to persuade the electorate a second time,  an election or a dead end of he negotiations is a less probable option than the opposite.
A slow and agonizing negotiation that will bring the trade deal closer is a more likely scenario.

Hence, positioning for the medium to long term is long, with extreme caution.

#NZDJPY Medium / Long term Outlook and Positioning

A brief description of the fundamentals of #NZD and #JPY can be found on this post:

http://fxrambler.blogspot.gr/2017/12/nzd-basics.html

The charts of the pair are at the moment as follows:

#NZDJPY H4

#NZDJPY Daily

#NZDJPY Weekly

The outlook given to the pair by institutional researchers is as follows:

Westpac

q1 76.4 q2 75.9 q3 74.5 q4 73.1

BNZ

q1 78 q2 79 q3 81 q4 82

Nomura

They expect #NZD to underperform

The charts do mot show any established bullish reversal.

The main influence on the pair will be by the action or inaction of #JPY.

The factor that is most likely to influence #JPY is BOJ rhetoric.  Action from BOJ is not expected during 2018.  This factor cannot in anyway be predicted.  However a slight reversal in rhetoric by BOJ will most probably lead to strengthening of #JPY.  

New Zealand economic data does not justify any considerable or sudden strengthening of #NZD.

Given this last assumption, and assuming a edging in the rhetoric, but also considering the range in which the pair is projected to move which is shown below,

Positioning in the medium to long term is short rather aggressively (since there is nothing to justify a considerable weakening of #JPY or strengthening of #NZD).  

The assumption concerning BOJ' rhetoric adds a fair degree of speculation to this conclusion.

#EURNZD Medium / Long term Outlook and Positioning

A brief description of the fundamentals of #NZD and #EUR can be found on this post:

http://fxrambler.blogspot.gr/2017/12/nzd-basics.html

The charts of the pair are at the moment as follows:

#EURNZD H4

#EURNZD Daily

#EURNZD Weekly

The outlook given to the pair by institutional researchers is as follows:

Westpac

NZDEUR, q1 0.58 q2 0.57 q3 0.56 q4 0.56

RBC Capital

They see the pair ending 2018 at 1.62

Societe Generale

q1 1.68 q2 1.68 q3 1.69 q4 1.72

Nomura

They expect #NZD to underperform

There is nothing to suggest on the charts that there is a long term trend reversal.

Economic data expected from New Zealand during 2018 does not suggest big or sudden gains for #NZD.

No negative surprises of economic or political nature in the long term horizon for the EU.

ECB turning hawkish in rhetoric first and in actions later are quite possible during 2018.

The range in which the pair is expected to move is as shown below:

Positioning in the medium to long term is long in a rather aggressive way.

#NZDUSD Medium / Long term Outlook and Positioning

A brief description of the fundamentals of #NZD and #USD can be found on this post:

http://fxrambler.blogspot.gr/2017/12/nzd-basics.html

The charts of the pair are at the moment as follows:

#NZDUSD H4

#NZDUSD Daily

#NZDUSD Weekly

The outlook given to the pair by various institutional researchers is as follows:

CIBC

q1 0.7, q2, 0.71. q3 0.71. q4 0.72

Westpac

q1 0.67, q2, 0.66. q3 0.64. q4 0.63

Scotiabank

q1 0.73, q2, 0.73. q3 0.74. q4 0.74

NAB

q1 0.69, q2, 0.69. q3 0.70. q4 0.70

Citi

They expect #NZD to recover 

UBS

They consider it undervalued. 0.76 by q4

ANZ 

q1 and q2 at around 0..73, and sliding to 0.68 by q4

Morgan Stanley

q1 0.68, q2, 0.68. q3 0.64. q4 0.61

Barclays

q1 0.71, q2, 0.72. q3 0.73. q4 0.74

Credit Agricole

q1 0.68, q2, 0.70. q3 0.72. q4 0.74

Societe Generale

q1 0.72, q2, 0.73. q3 0.74. q4 0.74

Nomura 

They see #NZD underperforming
BNZ
q1 0.68, q2, 0.68. q3 0.69. q4 0.70

Mathematical models based on statistics and historical data give an outlook of a range at around 0.68 0.69

It is obvious that there is a great divergence in the opinions between the research teams.  And this is expected since the fundamentals could point to either direction.

The range in which these future projections move can be seen below:

As far as the long term EMAs are concerned, it can be seen form the charts at the top,  that no trend reversal can be identified.  

Positioning against the current established trend, would be based mainly on the following assumptions:

#NZD is currently undervalued mainly because of politics and this uncertainty will fade away.

Economic data in the coming quarters will support its strengthening.

These two assumptions are not judged to be enough to make such a drastic move.

If the following assumptions are added to the "equation":

#USD is not expected to depreciate. At least not in any considerable and most importantly sudden way.

No sudden moves are expected in the pair towards any direction.

Economic data coming form New Zealand is not likely to support any major moves towards the buy direction.

The range of price move expected is relatively narrow, and it will probably be gradual.

The conclusion is that  positioning in the medium to long term should be short, in a rather aggressive way.